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A few months ago when Secretary Gates and the Department of Defense listed Mexico as one of the countries in the future that face destabilization. At the time the Mexican Government and many in America scoffed at the idea. But now the reasoning for DoD’s warning is becoming apparent and probably sooner than anyone expected.
Historically, Mexico’s internal problems have been with Zaptista and other rebels in in its southern provinces. While these rebels have certainly been formidable and been the occasional thorn in the Government’s side, they have been something that the Government has been able to deal with. These groups have mostly just been a cause for Rights Activists in the U.S. and elsewhere, but no big deal.
The new threat in Mexico is scary, well-funded, and a real threat to Mexico and even the SW United States. This threat is the battles between various drug cartels and their battles with the Mexican police force and government.
Over the past half-year battles have raged in northern Mexico between these cartels. People have been murdered, villages pillaged, and women raped. It has gotten so bad that Ciudad Juarez has been determined the most dangerous city in Mexico and Mexican government had to send its military into the city. What makes this scarier is that Ciudad Juarez is literally on the U.S. border and shares the Rio Grande with El Paso, TX and there are indications that these drug wars are seeping into U.S. territory with an increase in drug-related murders and other criminal activity in places along the border from Houston to San Diego.
With this recent development of the Mexican army entering Ciudad Juarez it greatly increases the likelihood of a Mexican Civil War, however hopefully this is a minor threat and will not spill over throughout Mexico. As long as the cartels can say divided against each other there is a good chance a civil war can be avoided.
The Mexican army’s best course of action may not be to stop all the violence but only to maintain law and order in its towns and cities and protect the innocents not involved in the drug trade. It may be in their best interest to allow the drug cartels to battle it out and attenuate their numbers and, hopefully, influence.
But a long-term solution to this problem with the drug trade is more complicated. Most importantly is that the government needs to ensure that it is providing opportunities for economic growth, aka in needs provide job growth. There also needs to be good local governance and infrastructure improvements. The government needs to ensure that it or peaceful entities are providing the services and security people need rather than the cartels. They must not allow the cartels to do their jobs.
For the United States the threat is certainly not as dire, but it needs to watched closely; fortunately the Obama administration is doing so. It was reported today that the administration is looking at the possibility of deploying the National Guard to the border (but isn’t that more of a Governor’s decision?). Certainly there are political considerations to be made here, we don’t want to be “occupying” our own territory with the military. Nor do we want to get directly involved militarily with an internal Mexican struggle aside from perhaps providing equipment and logisitical support to Mexico’s army.
Nevertheless this situation needs to be watched closely and our media and people need to take this more seriously. How can there be such a major crisis right on our border, but no one seems to know or care? This threat in Mexico is both among the most serious facing U.S. Foreign Policy and also one of the best opportunities for us and Mexico to counter the drug trade and to help Mexico along in its next step towards modernization. Remember it wasn’t until the 1990’s that Mexico became a democracy, they still have a long way to go.
RSS 
I guess no one will really care until the violence spills onto American streets.
The statistics that the world keeps using to compare death rates are ridiculous, one-sided, and poorly chosen.
”Since the beginning of 2007, the drug war has claimed the lives of about 7,500 people — almost double the number of U.S. troops killed in Iraq since 2003.”...How many PEOPLE have been killed in Iraq since 2003? If you want to use an overall number of deaths for Mexico, shouldn’t you do the same for IRAQ? or vice versa, use only the amount of police and soldiers killed in Mexico?
”The dead include more than 200 American citizens...” ..Yes, this has been verified..From 2004 - 2008 roughly 220 U.S. citizens have been killed...Roughly 70 U.S. were not involved in illicit acts (ex: drug trafficking, etc.)....
I don’t know if the economic crisis in the US make the american citizen more inclined to this kind of wild paranoias, but believe me... NO WAY !
The narco related violence is just that. A very savage response to the first government in many years who confront them (including the american).
If you want to find wild acts of nonsense violence from the ”civil” population... go to Alabama.
It’s very irresponsable to talk about a civil war on very unsubstantial basis.
That being said, the cartels have a lot of money and a lot of power and will not be willing to part with that easily. And they can extend their influence if they provide basic services for people rather than the government, this happens all the time in the developing world and other new democracies.
I have read and enjoyed many of your post on IB, I don’t feel you have a ”secret agenda” in writing what you wrote in this post, but I feel it is very biased and at times completely incorrect.
”People have been murdered, villages pillaged, and women raped.” : Where have I heard this before? Sounds like millions of books from hundreds of countries..It sounds like many places and times, but it IS NOT what cartels are doing.
I know it is difficult to understand.. For many, it’s like coming in to a horror film, near the end. You see the violence, horrific acts, and monsters everywhere, but fail to know who they are, why they are killing, who they are killing..etc.. I can imagine the sense of fear, bewilderment, and shock...It happens..
Even here in Mexico, as cartels begin appearing in a once peaceful town, things get out of hand..People panic; hysteria and paranoia impregnate the air. When rumours first entered my small town, I was terrified. I couldn’t sleep, I didn’t want to let my wife or kids out of my sight. For about a week, people in town barely looked at eachother, we stopped going out at night, until we realized..It was paranoia.. Not to say I go wandering around dark city streets at all hours of the night, but I don’t do that visiting my American in-laws either.
What is happening here is in very selected areas..Mostly border areas where cartels are warring to gain control of multibillion dollar corridors to the U.S. clients.
The War on Drugs is Not working. For decades te U.S. has sent billions of dollars and troops to foreign countries..it hasn’t worked..
Mexico has had to take a good, hard look in the mirror. By no means has it been pretty, but it was necessary. One has to admit their IS a problem, before ever attempting to correct..I think it’s time for the U.S. to pull out their mirror and have a look.
If we can both be honest and lay our cards on the table, we might just have a chance.
With your final statement, I couldn’t agree more.
My purpose in writing this post was not to denigrate Mexico or the government at all, but only to highlight a real problem that should be of major concern to the United States. I personally believe the problem is more serious than you let on, but I certainly hope it is as contained as you say.
I hope you and your family (and country) remain safe.
”I personally believe the problem is more serious than you let on”
I am not trying to give the image that everything is pretty and neat; wrapped up by our government, cops, Army with a pretty bow on top.., that too, would be a lie, on my part.
I dn’t want to lie about my country:enough of that has been done already..
To explain a little bit more: This War on Drugs is far from over. The ”war” here, isn’t just about violence, it’s not just about poverty, nor is it about monsterous cartels and innocent civilians..Sadly, we have had to face the music: Drugs have influenced every part of our nation: economics, government, judicial authority, families...It would be nice to be able to blame just the cartels with their ”plata o plomo” persuasions, but the truth is: The blame lies on ALL of us..
As a society, we citizens, have been sleeping for decades; perfect conformist: blind, dumb, deaf, and mute. When trafficking began to heat up, even after knowing corrupt officials ”sold” free passage, we never blinked an eye ”OUT OF SIGHT, OUT OF MIND” OR ”AS LONG AS IT DOESN’T AFFECT ME OR MINE,NO HARM DONE”...we causually ”forgot” that ”ME AND MINE” includes our nation...WE FAILED, as citizens..We never stood up, always content..out of site, out of mind: as long as it doesn’t affect me or mine.
We failed to realize just how much corruption was going on..We failed to realize, just how much that type of corruption would AFFECT our own in the future; our children, our liberties, our sense of security...
Fast forward to 2006. Newly elected President Calderon declares war against cartels and corruption: Again we thought: ”sure, whatever you like, whatever..”
It really didn’t mean anything to us. You gotta remember 2 things about us: 1)Corruption and drugs are wellknown here..it’s not that nice, but hardly the end f the world..Every country has it..We just don’t hide ours.. 2)Referring back to previous comment of mine: We are deep sleepers...
So Calderon declares war against cartels..Trust me, he’s not the first Prez to do this—-so we go back to our sweet little slumber- and all of a sudden..BAM!
Heads are rolling, literally. Top officials are arrested: more heads, mutilations, tortures, seizes, arrests, extraditions to the U.S., tortures, and KIDNAPPINGS BEGAN.
Convoys of soldiers begin to sweep the nation: (NOTE: this in itself is NOT bad nor scarey here in Mexico...We don’t have soldiers in other countries, ALL SOLDIERS are NATIONAL GUARDS..It is not uncommon to see them throughout Mexico, especially close to PEMEX, etc.)
All a town cop that everyone knew is scooped up by soldiers..A restaurant owner that everyone ”knew and loved” is shot 30 times on his way to work.. WHAT THE HELL? Soon we start panicking.. We all are going to die..Then we start LISTENING, AWAKENING...Nobody ever wondered how loving Sr. Felipe who just 2 years ago was selling shrimp and fish from a humble 4×6 palm thatched diner all of a sudden built 4 new LUXURY seafood restaurants. Nobody ever thought to think how JOSE the town cop had 3 cellphones, a jeep cherokee, and ha swimming pool....WAIT A SECOND...YOU MEAN THE SHIT IS HERE...in MY town?!!!
Now we are alarmed..hurt, scared, ANGRY. Now we see the BIG PICTURE, we see what we ”allowed” to grow, in our backyard, along side our children, our schools, our parents..A MONSTER IS ON THE LOOSE.
Jump forward to Jan 09: A tally of the 08 years end deaths.. CHRIST!
Not pretty, but we are finally on board, awake. It’s not going to end soon..Ten’s of billions of dollars will NOT just be tossed to the wayside just because we finally have a President who was serious in cleaning up Mexico, just because we have opened our sleepy citizen eyes...
SThings are not ”peachy keen” here in Mexico...but that is not to say we are on the edge of collapse...Is there violence and death? Yes... Have innocent lives been lost? YES... Are we losing this fight? I don’t think so, even though figures are horrific: it actually shows a type of progress..something that has NEVER happened since MEXICAN CARTELS were originally formed.
And just because it can’t be won doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be fought or drugs should be legal either. The war on terror or defeating computer hacking in its forms cannot be won either, but we still need to mitigate the threat as best as possible.
The focus should be on harm reduction for society and individuals. That means legalization, funding rehab centers and developing fact-based educational efforts aimed at reducing demand.
If drugs were legalized, the percentage of people hooked on heroine or cocaine would expand exponentially to the major detriment of our society. Their are plenty of alcoholics that pose a problem and cocaine and heroine are far more addictive and thus would be far more destructive. If they ONLY legalized weed, I wouldn’t have as much of a problem with it.
The latter would be disasterous.
”Legalize what? just MJ? or also Coke, Heroine, Acid, etc? The latter would be disastrous.”
On what experience do you figure ”disastrous”, the Swiss model of legalization?
Heroin and cocaine were made illegal in 1914 in the USA. Was America a disaster during the 19th Century? No. Your actually, just reacting to anti-drug hysteria. Learn your history. Ben Franklyn and Samuel Taylor Coleridge (the poet) were both Laudanum (made from opium as is heroin) addicts. Meriwether Lewis, of Lewis & Clark, used opium and morphine.
People used to say the same thing about gay people. ”If you made it legal everyone would become gay and the population would die off.” I think everyone knows that’s ridiculous now.
Similarly, I’m sure making drugs legal wouldn’t significantly change drug use in America. According to data from Netherlands drug use could go down. Are you itching to use heroin? Is it’s illegal status the only thing stopping you? I don’t think so.
Please learn about drug facts and history before making sweeping generalizations. Read ”Drug War Facts” available for free at
http://www.drugwarfacts.org/cms/
